The latest hurricane season forecast is out and only nine named storms are expected in the Atlantic Ocean. Historically, the Atlantic Ocean is usually home to 12 named storms during hurricane season.
Dr. Phillip J. Klotzback and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University believe 3 of the nine named storms will be hurricanes, and only one will be a major hurricane.
The two doctors from Colorado State University cited two primary factors for the lower forecast.
Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are cooler-than-average. Warm water temperatures are the fuel for major hurricanes.
A moderate El Nino is likely to develop sometime this summer or fall.
“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” Klotzbach said. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”
People living along Hurricane prone areas should still prepare. It only takes one storm to ruin your house or lead to tragedy.
These forecasts aren’t always accurate, either. Last year, 18 named storms were expected. Nine of them were forecasted to be hurricanes and four of them major. 2013 didn’t turn out nearly as bad as forecasted. Only 14 named storms formed, 2 of them were hurricanes and none of them were major.
Colorado State University’s forecast also put a percentage number on land impacts. There’s a 35% chance for the entire U.S. coastline, 20% for the east coast including the Florida Peninsula and a 19% chance for the Gulf Coast and 28% for the Caribbean. All of these numbers are below historic averages.